Rethinking Islam with Sultan Shahin

Urdu Section
31 Aug 2010, NewAgeIslam.Com
Dangers of Taliban returning to Afghanistan: options before India

Iin this article that New Age Islam is presenting in its original Urdu as well as with an English translation, prominent journalist Hasan Kamal says that “as the US and NATO forces are due to withdraw from Afghanistan next year, the situation there may not prove conducive for India as it has very few friends in the region. So it will be most appropriate for India to wait and watch and strengthen its relations with its neighbours.”

Another important point he makes is that “we cannot deny the truth that after the exit of the US forces, the Taliban will be bubbling with confidence derived from the realisation that they have defeated two superpowers of the world and forced them to run away from the battlefield. This trance is very dangerous and India’s apprehensions about it are not unfounded, particularly at a time when Kashmir is boiling. The question is: What are the options before India?”

Dangers of Taliban returning to Afghanistan: options before India

By Hasan Kamal

A better Afghanistan situation for India would be a longer NATO stay in Afghanistan though it does not seem possible for various reasons. The foremost, obviously is the indifference of the American people towards the war. The second important reason is the UK pressure on the US to call it quits. The opposition of the war is greater in the UK than in the US. In America, at least there is a Jewish lobby that though is not interested in Afghanistan as its centre of interests is Iran and Iraq, but to maintain their good relations with the US administration, they run campaigns to form public opinion in favour of the administration so that the US administration remains grateful to it. But in the UK, there is no such lobby which could help in these situations. Apart from this, there was a promise in the election manifestoes in the UK and the US of the termination of wars in Iran and Afghanistan and they had to honour the promise at any cost. And above all, the NATO forces believe that these are wars which are never won. The US intelligence agencies themselves have admitted tongue in cheek that defeat is staring in their eyes.

In these circumstances, the stay of the NATO forces in Afghanistan looks improbable. For India, the more worrisome is the possibility that after the exit of the forces, the power of Afghanistan will be in the hands of those from whom everything but a reciprocation of the gesture of friendship can be expected. To be more specific, New Delhi is apprehensive of the fact that these elements or the majority of them have the same way of thinking that has been nurtured in them by Pakistan and what Pakistan has nurtured in them hardly requires any elaboration. India’s major grievance against the US is that it made no effort to remove India’s apprehensions nor did it create an atmosphere which would help it. The US in fact showed sheer selfishness. To escape from Afghanistan unscathed, Barack Obama administration has shaken hands with even those Taliban whom they hated the most until recently. No one knows what stand Mullah Omar will take after the exit of the forces. Will he join the government or stay away? Or will the US strike him off too from the list of terrorists? America has already struck off the name of Mullah Omar’s confidante Abdul Wali Mutawakkal.

We cannot deny the truth that after the exit of the US forces, the Taliban will be bubbling with confidence derived from the realisation that they have defeated two superpowers of the world and forced them to run away from the battlefield. This trance is very dangerous and India’s apprehensions about it are not unfounded, particularly at a time when Kashmir is boiling. The question is: What are the options before India?

Some analysts have expressed their opinions but it does not seem to be of much help. For example, a senior expert in foreign affairs has suggested that India should establish contacts with the rest of the members of the Northern Alliance. Northern Alliance is a powerful militia of the time when the Russian forces were in Afghanistan. Ahmad Shah Masood, also known as the Tiger of Panjsher, was the head of this guerrilla group. He was fighting with the Afghan government and at the same time was at loggerheads with the Taliban. He repeatedly informed the US of the plans of the Taliban, but the US never supported him suspecting him to be an ally of Russia. There was a lot of good will for Ahmad Shah Masood in India but India was not an emerging economic power then and so could not help him financially. Supporting him militarily was also out of the questions as the US and Pakistan would not have allowed India to put its feet in Afghanistan. India’s support to him was only moral and verbal.

There is no doubt that if the US had listened to the Tiger of Panjsher, Afghanistan would not have gone into the hands of the Taliban after the evacuation of the Russian forces, and even if it had happened, at the least, Al Qaida would not have got an opportunity to acquire a foothold there. Osama bin Laden and the Taliban leadership were scared of Ahmad Shah Masood, so they killed him with the help of suicide bombers in the guise of Arab journalists. After his death, Northern Alliance disintegrated. Now one hears only of Abdullah Abdullah as a successor of Ahmad Shah Masood. He was a presidential candidate against Hamid Karzai in the recent elections and had lost. It will, therefore, be wishful thinking that even if some of them might have survived; they can be of any help to us.

Some people have also suggested to India the option of forming a front consisting of Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan and Tadzhikistan, Russia and Iran that will strive to contain the Taliban extremism. The idea was good and there is no doubt that it could be an effective and powerful front. But the problem is that it is now too late and secondly, its formation is doubtful at this juncture. Though the guerrilla leader Rasheed Dostam is still alive and active, he is considered a very cruel and irresponsible warlord in Afghanistan. Moreover, he commanded awe only till the time the Russian forces were based in Afghanistan. Therefore, forming a front with him can prove counterproductive. The major question is how far the Russia of today can go with India on this issue. We don’t think that being defeated in Afghanistan once, the Russia of Putin which is quite different from the Russia of Brezhnev would like to fish in the troubled waters of Afghanistan. Currently, it has no interest in Afghanistan other than that recently minerals worth a trillion dollar have been discovered there. So, Russia would not like to present the image of a foe to the powers that be in Afghanistan. Therefore, it would be unwise to expect anything from Russia.

There is only one power left in the reckoning and that is Iran. Iran is not friends with the Taliban. The truth is that when the Russian forces were trampling Afghanistan under their feet and various guerrilla groups had come out to confront the Russian forces, Iran had warned America of Taliban, but America had only one goal in sight – to cause both military and political defeat of Russia so that it could emerge as the biggest power in a unipolar world. That was the reason America did not pay any heed to Iran’s warnings.

However, the biggest obstacle in forming a front with Iran is that India has not fulfilled Iran’s expectations on two occasions; rather Iran was disappointed by India’s stance on the IAEA front. India voted against Iran twice to appease America. Later, India tried to get even but in vain. Apart from that Iran also felt humiliated in the gas pipeline agreement with India. It thinks that the disagreement on the price of gas was only an alibi to back out of the agreement. The main reason behind it was that the US did not want India to have any trade agreement with Iran. Therefore the possibilities are almost nil that Iran will go far enough with us. Taliban ruled Afghanistan will not augur well for Iran too but it has more friends in Afghanistan than does India. India had very high expectations from Karzai. He was and still is a friend of India. He is also deeply attached to India. He did his schooling in Shimla. He had never had good relations with Pakistan. He was the most useful person for us. But at the moment he himself is in a critical situation, so we cannot expect much from him. The fast changing situation in Afghanistan due to the failures of the allied forces that have left him stunned. His success in the presidential elections has weakened him instead of strengthening his position. Now he seems to be at the mercy of Taliban and Pakistani forces. It would be futile to expect that he will be able to create some space for India in Afghanistan. At the moment India has no other option but to wait and watch. Second option is that India should revise its policy towards its neighbours and instead of ignoring them, as it had been doing till now, should extend its hand of friendship towards them. This is the option that will pay dividends to India.

Source: Hamara Samaj, New Delhi

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