Al Qaeda: Battered but far from defeated

Islam,Terrorism and Jihad

26 Sep 2009, NewAgeIslam.Com

Al Qaeda: Battered but far from defeated

Though the mainstream among the Pakistani people has rejected terrorism and the enforcement of extremist ideology, as was evident in Swat and elsewhere, the danger of public opinion turning against the security operations is very real. Besides, the danger of protracted military operations in other areas such as Waziristan may have an adverse reaction on the people. Similarly in Afghanistan, whether Helmand or other areas, the fallout of protracted engagement is imminent with time, unless remedial measures entailing provision of security, shelter and food for the people are not taken. Al Qaeda and its allies are likely to be preparing for such an eventuality. After all, recruitment for militancy best breeds in discontent. -- Faryal Leghari URL of this page: http://newageislam.net/NewAgeIslamArticleDetail.aspx?ArticleID=1803 ----   Al Qaeda time-out Faryal Leghari   THE call from the high priest of Al Qaeda, expected since some time, has finally come. Second in command to Osama bin Laden, but reportedly the brain behind the organisation's operations, Ayman Al Zawahiri has urged the Pakistani people to resist the United States attempts to break up their country. He warned them that Washington's real intention was to divide Pakistan, 'a Muslim nuclear power state' and reminded them of their duty to fight jihad. Given Al Qaeda's modus operandi, public outbursts of blind following is not what is desired — rather, it is the behind the scene mobilisation, recruitment, training and coordination of operations that is the objective. Zawahiri's appeal, posted on several Al Qaeda- affiliated websites, at this critical juncture deserves careful study. The timing of the message is significant. It comes at a time when Al Qaeda and its Taleban allies are facing extreme pressure both in Afghanistan and ?Pakistan, at the hands of the international coalition forces and the Pakistan military. Zawahiri's appeal is actually one for recruitment and mobilisation to support the militants - both in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the ongoing military operations. In his own words, Zawahiri says, "If we stand by passively without offering due support to the Mujahideen we shall not only contribute to the destruction of Pakistan and Afghanistan, but we shall also deserve the painful punishment of Almighty Allah." The Al Qaeda's high command does realise that its survival in the region is dependent on its ability to forge alliances with the insurgents and other militant groups. Though the two-week-old Helmand operation, titled Operation Khanjar (dagger) in southern Afghanistan may still be in a nascent stage it has put a considerable strain on the Taleban insurgency, that face additional pressure from across the border, on the Pakistan side. However, the latest assessments from the US Commander in Afghanistan, Stanely A. McChrystal has warned of a protracted engagement with increased Taleban resistance. The fighting is expected to pick up pace in the coming weeks as Afghanistan goes to polls on August 20. Helmand, the most notorious of all Afghan provinces, is not only the bastion of the insurgency but also produces 50 per cent of the country's total opium production. It now hosts a security contingent consisting of 4,000 US Marines and 650 Afghan security forces, not to forget about 8,000 British troops that have been stationed in the province, since some time. Though the number of British combat casualties has sharply risen in the past two weeks since the launch of the operation, the insurgents have as yet adopted a wait and see line of action supported by small ambush attacks. However, the reported rise in the use of improvised explosive devices is likely to test the coalition forces. The success of the Iraqi resistance with the IED's is likely to be replicated on a larger scale in Afghanistan. It is expected to be a significant contributor in achieving both tactical and strategic successes for the insurgents, who are likely to benefit doubly, given the geographical advantages and nature of guerrilla warfare, best suited to a rural theatre. The problem for the Taleban/ Al Qaeda alliance, however, is expected to come from restriction of movement in the border area that was typically used for tactical retreat in the past. With the deployment of a large number of Pakistani security forces on the Helmand border in Balochistan, at the time of the ongoing operation, the insurgents are likely to face problems. The Pak-Afghan border is a security nightmare, not only because of its length spanning 2,640 km but also for the terrain that makes monitoring nearly impossible. Besides, the free cross border movement of people across the border, due to their ethnic-tribal linkages has compounded the security problems, much to the advantage of the insurgents and militants who have naturally taken advantage of the situation. The current scenario, where the insurgency is being wedged in as part of a calculated strategic move, may pose its biggest challenge to date. The fact that the US drone strikes in Pakistan's restive tribal areas bordering Afghanistan have successfully taken out atleast 14 key Al Qaeda commanders—not to forget another 800 plus civilian casualties—is also important. The real pressure has come about not with drone strikes, but the military operations launched by the Pakistan armed forces, first in Swat and in the tribal agencies adjoining the border. The ongoing operations in Waziristan, the epicentre of the Pakistani Taleban, led by Baitullah Mehsud, seem to have tightened ?the noose. Coming back to Zawahiri's appeal, the stress on Pakistan's nuclear status is additionally significant. Analysts, who have forewarned of the danger of Pakistan's nuclear assets falling into the hands of Al Qaeda, might clap their hands in glee, pointing to the link that highlights the surfacing of Al Qaeda's hidden agenda. It would only lead them to clamour louder for those strategic assets to be placed under US supervision at the earliest!! However, at this point, regardless of Al Qaeda's agenda or the impossibility of such a scenario being realised — given the tight security and safeguards deployed by the ?Pakistan establishment — it is unlikely that Zawahiri was voicing his subconscious desires. The real reason he chose to refer to the fact lies in invoking pride among the Pakistani people and to remind them that as the only Muslim nuclear powered nation, it is their duty to put up armed resistance to fight the nefarious designs of the US that has been successful in gaining allegiance of the Pakistan government. Though the mainstream among the Pakistani people has rejected terrorism and the enforcement of extremist ideology, as was evident in Swat and elsewhere, the danger of public opinion turning against the security operations is very real. Besides, the danger of protracted military operations in other areas such as Waziristan may have an adverse reaction on the people. Similarly in Afghanistan, whether Helmand or other areas, the fallout of protracted engagement is imminent with time, unless remedial measures entailing provision of security, shelter and food for the people are not taken. Al Qaeda and its allies are likely to be preparing for such an eventuality. After all, recruitment for militancy best breeds in discontent. In all likelihood, reports that Al Qaeda may be relocating its operational base to other Central Asian states may be a highly feasible option, given the extreme pressure they are facing at present in South West Asia. One thing is for certain though, the terrorist outfit—though battered—is far from defeated and is expected to not only retain but forge further alliances to engage and defeat the US forces in Afghanistan. Khaleej Times Source: http://dailymailnews.com/200907/22/Editorial_Column/DMColumn.php#1 URL of this page: http://newageislam.net/NewAgeIslamArticleDetail.aspx?ArticleID=1803