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| 05 Aug 2008, NewAgeIslam.Com | |
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K. Subrahmanyam 5 Aug 2008
The basic flaw in the US strategy of fighting the war against Taliban has been exposed in an article in the New York Times on July 27, 2008 by Thomas Schweich who was till recently deputy assistant secretary for counter-narcotics campaigns in the state department. While understandably his focus is on the narcotics issue he makes out a strong case that the war in Afghanistan cannot be won without cutting off the resource base of Taliban — the poppy crop. He is highly critical of President Hamid Karzai for being soft on poppy cultivation, the drug lords and the poppy farmers and is equally unsparing about the attitude of the Pentagon whose first priority is winning the war while letting the narcotics problem be sorted out by somebody else.
Most of the poppy cultivation is in southern Afghanistan, close to the Pakistan border, by Pathans who form the core support base of Karzai. He is, therefore, ambivalent about the destruction of poppy crops. While the US Drug Enforcement Agency had urged destroying the crops through aerial spraying of herbicide, Karzai had objected to it on the ground it was not acceptable and has favoured ground destruction of the crop. Such ground destruction is less efficient, takes more manpower and needs security personnel to protect those destroying the crop from Taliban attacks. The result is that Afghanistan's poppy cultivation is expanding and is expected to produce a bountiful crop this year.
The poppy crop is profitable for the farmer, local drug lord, corrupt bureaucracy and, above all, the Taliban which controls the area. In these circumstances, Karzai can only be the mayor of Kabul, as he is often described. According to Schweich, the Pentagon has taken a stand that eradication of narcotics is not part of their mission. The result is that Taliban gets unlimited resources to fight the war against the US and not allow Karzai to consolidate his rule. He is, therefore, of the view that unless Karzai is compelled to change his stand and the Pentagon treats narcotics elimination on a war footing, it would be difficult to bring the war against Taliban to an early conclusion.
While this thesis is basically correct, it focuses narrowly only on counter-narcotics strategy within Afghanistan. Narcotics in Afghanistan has a long history. During the mujahideen campaign against the Soviet forces in the 80s, the CIA supported poppy cultivation in Afghanistan and a large drug trade was developed to finance the campaign. Heroin was exported via Pakistan which became a major drug trading hub. The present poppy cultivation in Afghanistan and its conversion into heroin and export to the rest of the world cannot be sustained without involvement of Pakistan as Afghanistan is a landlocked country.
This would also explain the interaction between the Afghan Taliban and its Pakistani counterpart and the power and influence of various drug lords-cum-tribal chieftains on both sides of Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
The drug money has played a role in Pakistani politics and there have been allegations in the media of the involvement of the Pakistani army in receipt and disbursal of drug money in electoral campaigns. There have also been reports that the army and the ISI have used drug money for their covert operations. In the 90s, the US got some of the drug lords handed over to them and sentenced to long terms in prison.
While Washington is reportedly pressing Islamabad to take stronger measures against Taliban in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, the narcotics issue has not featured as one of the factors to be tackled. India has a legitimate interest in taking up this issue with the US. Recently, Admiral McConnell, director of national intelligence, was in India seeking to promote closer cooperation between Indian and US intelligence.
The expansion of narcotics cultivation in Afghanistan, its processing and trade and its financing of Taliban and terrorist operations are appropriate issues for discussion with the US intelligence and strategic community. Drug money finances terrorism which has been intensified against India in recent times.
The poppy cultivation in southern Afghanistan and Taliban's stake in it comes in the way of development projects in which India has invested heavily.
Increased flow of drugs through Pakistan is bound to affect India and make it a transit zone. Large availability of drug money on the other side of the Indo-Pak border and the need to use India as a drug transit route would also facilitate the traffic of terrorists, corrupt border security personnel and finance formation of more terrorist cells in India.
The US itself was permissive about the drug trade and financing in the 80s so long as it helped in the anti-Soviet campaign. Washington has less justification to tolerate the drug trade now. India should take up this issue both with the US and Pakistan. Drugs and terrorism have gone together in many parts of the world. Drugs, terrorism and religious extremism make for an explosive mixture.
This is an issue on which even the civil society in Pakistan will be concerned. It is ominous that an issue which the US counter-narcotics official has highlighted has not attracted public attention over the last two years. India can ill afford to overlook this threat.
K. Subrahmanyam is a Delhi-based strategic affairs analyst.
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