Rethinking Islam with Sultan Shahin: Pakistan Elections: New crossroads

Friday, March 7, 2008

Pakistan Elections: New crossroads

By Sultan Shahin

From asianaffairs, London -March 2008

The Pakistan electorate’s hopes are centred around peace and prosperity and not about politicians settling personal scores, comments Sultan Shahin

This is indeed a defining moment for Pakistan. It now has an opportunity for making a systemic shift to liberal democracy and go back to its roots of all-inclusive Sufi Islam. The voters across Pakistan have explicitly rejected both military dictatorship and extremist Islam. But the moment of opportunity will not last very long; it will perhaps be shorter than on other occasions. The ball is now in the politicians’ court. Will they act with their characteristic recklessness or be guided by the wisdom they seem to have acquired in the years of wandering in the wilderness?
Initial indications are good. A systemic shift requires a national government. The nation-wide consensus that has emerged in favour of moderate, liberal, plural, democratic rule needs to be harnessed for the phenomenal changes required to bring about long-term stability required in Pakistan. In concrete terms it means that PPP (Pakistan People’s Party), PML (N) (Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz), MQM (Mottahida Qaumi Movement), ANP (Awami National Party), PML (Q) (PML, Quaid), should all be part of governance. This will create a political mess. But it is only through ‘the noise and chaos of democracy’, to employ the evocative phrase of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto which he used with reference to Indian democracy, that Pakistan too can acquire stability and prosperity. It is heartening, therefore, to see all political leaders engaging in discussions with one another and discussing the possibilities of coming together and forming a government of national consensus.
The first test of their wisdom would be the priorities fixed by such a government: particular questions like getting rid of the now-civilian President Pervez Musharraf and the restoration of the Chief Justice and the pre-PCO (Provisional Constitution Order) judges, as Nawaz Sharif would have it, or the general problems of religious extremism, poverty alleviation, provincial autonomy, independence of judiciary, sovereignty of parliament and freedom of media, etc., as ANP leader Asfandayar Wali would have it. Guided by Sharif’s grievances against President Musharraf, and probably a hint of good old vendetta, the government would get mired in endless internecine wars and the country would be destabilised at a time when it is already very troubled and facing enormous challenges. Wali’s priorities are more to the point and set in a larger perspective. Not that the particular questions of Musharraf’s continuation as President or the judges’ restoration are not important. But the country expects to move forward at a great speed from now on in solving its long-term systemic problems and several difficult decisions need to be taken in quite a hurry before that can happen.
It is unlikely that the military and American supporters of President Musharraf will allow him to be impeached. He is the face of the Pakistan Army and unless his continuation starts threatening its corporate interests, he is unlikely to lose its backing, though it may go along with his powers being substantially reduced. Even if he is replaced, the post will have to be given to somebody who has the backing of the military and the US administration. That reality of Pakistani politics cannot be wished away soon. It would be easiest for the West to put pressure on PPP leader Asif Zardari, the acclaimed Mr 10 per cent. He has cases of massive corruption against him in European courts. Even Pakistani courts can revive the cases against him. In fact, if parliament does bring in judicial independence, it should be among the first of their tasks to revive the cases against Zardari and Sharif and order investigation into the corruption allegations against them. Popular mandates do not absolve politicians of their past wrongdoing. After all, Musharraf is not wrong when he claims that at the time he took power, the country was on the brink of being declared a failed state after several years of democratic governance under Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, the slain leader of the PPP.
It is doubtful, however, that President Musharraf, if he survives politically and whether his wings are clipped or not, would be so foolish as to start interfering in governance right away. He or his replacement will bide his time and wait for the politicians to again make the same mistakes, run the economy aground, unleash a reign of corruption and sleaze, incompetence and mismanagement. They would do well to remember that every time the Pakistani electorate has been given a fair chance it has voted out the incumbent government, whether it had been democratically elected or was backed by the military. They may have braved the threat of violence and fear of massive rigging to go out and boot out the military-backed regime, but they had also welcomed with great fervour and hope General Musharraf deposing the democratically elected government of Sharif and taking power in his own hands. This shows that there is already a background of distrust against politicians in Pakistan, both those elected in free and fair elections and those brought unfairly by the military in rigged polls. But as they have no alternative, they keep changing the same horses.
This gives the politicians little space for manoeuvring and even less time to succeed. They just have to deliver. And quickly. The electorate at the moment has great hopes. These hopes are not centred around the removal of Musharraf or reinstatement of judges. They want peace and prosperity. The outgoing government has not taken tough economic decisions for some time. The first thing any government will have to do is to take measures that will fuel inflation and bring hardship to people. If this is coupled with mismanagement and corruption, the people may start losing patience quickly.
Islamic extremists have suffered grievously in this election. The public has shown where it stands on this question. Now it is time for self-styled liberals to show guts, something they have not done since the formation of Pakistan. The PPP, for instance, has a mandate to hand over A.Q. Khan to the US or IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for questioning, Dawood Ibrahim and others of his ilk to India, and allow the US and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) forces to enter Pakistan’s tribal territory in pursuit of terrorists without having to take permission of the government in every instance. Their assassinated leader had made these pre-poll promises. The new government has a mandate for fighting the jihadi militia. By keeping their supporters out of power the people have provided the government with an opportunity to do so without hindrance.
Above all, they have a mandate for improving ties with India. They can improve relations to a degree that the military loses much of its raison d’être, and hence its clout and ability to threaten the democratic apparatus. Improvement of relations with India also will have the support of the military; indeed President Musharraf had gone to great lengths to achieve a breakthrough in this regard. The project did not succeed to the expected degree. One of the reasons was that his government was not perceived as having a popular mandate and so foreign governments had to be a little wary in dealing with it and entering into far-reaching agreements. Now the situation is much better and the new government will have much goodwill in India and credibility with the Indian government as well as the people.
Only these and other such hard decisions taken rather quickly before the window of opportunity closes will bring about a systemic shift in Pakistan politics and lead to the establishment of a healthy liberal democratic set-up that no undemocratic force will be able to interfere with.