The War within Islam
29 Jun 2010, NewAgeIslam.Com
Karachi: Nourishing Islamist Terror

Political Commentator Rafia Zakaria in an article published in Dawn on February 10, 2010, observed: “As Pakistan’s only mega city Karachi’s demographics, history of communal conflict and dynamics of urban governance all present a lethal mix. In addition, its status as a global city, one with widespread (and largely unregulated) communication systems, present unique opportunities to terrorist groups wishing to use the city as a hub for monitoring and proliferating transnational networks. More al Qaeda planners and leaders are believed to have been apprehended in Karachi than in any other single city, pointing to the fact that Karachi is not simply a target for terrorist attacks but a place which provides a cover to groups planning them.”…

Karachi now provides an entire ‘infrastructure’ for terrorist organisations to flourish. The TTP, Taliban and al Qaeda, facing some pressure in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, continue to pour into the port city, further damaging an already dwindling Pakistani economy. The city is already a safe haven for Islamist terrorists, and is evolving as a significant theatre of violence. Unless extremist networks are uprooted now, the ‘descent into anarchy’ that has been noted across Pakistan’s other provinces may well come to afflict the country’s commercial capital. -- Ajit Kumar Singh and Tushar Ranjan Moahnty

Karachi: Nourishing Islamist Terror

By Ajit Kumar Singh and Tushar Ranjan Moahnty 

Karachi, Pakistan's commercial capital, has long been a theatre of wide spectrum of violence, inspired, variously, by Islamist terrorism, ethnic and sectarian rivalry or partisan politics. It has, moreover, emerged as a major safe-haven for Islamist extremists linked to Al Qaeda and Taliban, as well as to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Capital to the Sindh province, Karachi has, since the 1980s, been a focal point of tremendous sectarian strife between the majority Sunni and minority Shia Muslims. The city has also seen recurring violence targeting western interests. Violent political rivalries have also created an environment that has helped terrorist groups of various hues entrench themselves in metropolitan anonymity.

With a population of some 20 million and counting, the port-city, has witnessed at least of 425 killings, including 360 civilians, 38 militants and 27 Security Force (SF) personnel, in some 213 incidents of violence since 2005. While year 2007 saw an extraordinary spike, with 151 killed followed by a decline at just 37 fatalities in 2008, violence has been escalating since. At least 77 persons have already been killed in 2010. The city has also witnessed at least seven suicide bombings since 2005.

KARACHI FATALITIES: 2005-2010

Year	Incidents	Civilians	SFs	Terrorists	Total
2010*	70	65	3	11	79
2009	45	51	3	11	65
2008	30	19	8	10	37
2007	11	150	0	1	151
2006	21	57	13	0	70
2005	34	18	0	5	23
Total	213	360	27	38	425

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal, *Data till June 27, 2010

The most significant incidents recorded since 2005 include:

February 5, 2010: At least 33 persons were killed and over 100, including women and children, were injured, in twin blasts in Karachi, targeting Shias, as the city marked Hazrat Imam Hussain's chehlum (40^th Day after death) ceremony.

December 28, 2009: A suicide bomber targeted Pakistan's largest procession of Shiite Muslims in Karachi on their holiest day of Ashura, killing at least 30 people and injuring more than 63. Interior Minister Rehman Malik blamed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) for the attack.

October 18, 2007: A suicide bombing in a crowd welcoming former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto killed 143 persons and injured approximately 550 others in Karachi. However, Bhutto escaped unhurt in this attack. [She eventually died in an attack on December 27, 2007.]

April 11, 2006: At least 57 people, including prominent Sunni religious leaders, were killed and more than 50 persons sustained injuries, in a suicide bomb attack at Nishtar Park in Karachi.

May 31, 2005: Four employees of the US fast-food franchise Kentucky Fried Chicken were burnt alive and two others froze to death in the outlet’s refrigeration unit in Karachi during a riot that followed a suicide attack on a Shia mosque in Karachi.

Significantly, SATP data excludes killings in political and organised criminal violence which are rampant in Karachi. Thus, on May 12, 2007, Karachi had exploded in orchestrated violence when the sacked Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, arrived in the city to attend a rally organised by High Court lawyers and opposition parties. Armed cadres, principally believed to be drawn from the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) which heads the provincial Government in Sindh, and is a partner in the ruling Federal Coalition, received tacit state support as they went on a rampage across the city, attacking opposition party workers and media organisations, leaving at least 42 dead and over 150 wounded. All Parties Minorities Alliance Chairman, Shahbaz Bhatti, had, at that time, declared that the "Government deliberately stoked the violence against political parties."

Recently, on May 19, 2010, Karachi, witnessed shootings across the city, in which at least 23 people, including a Policeman, were killed. According to the data compiled by law enforcement agencies, at least 92 people affiliated with political and banned religious outfits have been shot dead in various incidents of targeted killing in 2010.

The city has also witnesses a continuous rash of abductions for ransom, car-jackings, armed robberies and murders. Sources indicate that a substantial section of such crime is attributed to groups with links to various political parties and Islamist extremist groups. An elaborate underground economy of organised crime and terror exists in Karachi, where everything is said to be available for a price. Karachi is also flooded with illegal weapons, and local media reports indicate that some 16 cases of unlicensed arms possession are registered, on average, each day.

The city has, for long, been considered extremely difficult to police. A November 23, 2009, report cited a study carried out by the Police suggesting that the sanctioned strength of 34,155 law enforcers was well below what was needed. "In Karachi, there is a single Policeman for the protection of the lives, property and legitimate interests of 571 people" as against a 1:287 ratio in Lahore. "If we follow the police-population ratio of Lahore, the Karachi Police force should have more than 60,000 policemen for the protection of more than 16 million people."

Nevertheless, enforcement agencies have chalked up some important successes. Police, for instance, killed five suspects, believed to be linked to the then TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud, in an encounter in Karachi on June 26, 2009. According partial data compiled in the SATP database, at least 75 militants, including 59 TTP, five al Qaeda and six Afghan Taliban cadres, were arrested in 2009. Year 2010 has already seen at least 56, including 16 Taliban and two al Qaeda militants, arrested. Significantly, US and Pakistani intelligence services arrested the top military 'commander' of Taliban, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on February 16, 2010. 46 militants were arrested in the city in 2005; 88 in 2006; 31 in 2007 and 44 in 2008.

Meanwhile, Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik said, on May 23, 2010, that terrorist elements from Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Swat (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) were behind the recent wave of target killings in Karachi. Karachi mayor Syed Mustafa Kamal separately stated that the city was the TTP's "revenue engine".

Earlier reports indicated that hundreds of TTP cadres fleeing from the country’s restive northwest frontier, had taken refuge in Karachi, where a growing nexus with banned militant organisations was evident. A huge Pashtun population, mostly in the city’s suburbs, provided shelter to these militants, according to security officials. Senior Police investigator Raja Umer Khattab thus disclosed, "Most of the Taliban coming to Karachi are 'B' and 'C' category... They hide here, work here as labourers, and some of them are probably waiting for the right time to go back to the tribal areas and fight again." While in the city, they receive support from and establish linkages with the various extremist groupings operating in the city. An unnamed official thus explained, "The TTP and most of the jihadi outfits like LeJ (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Jundullah, share the same ideology, and in Karachi we have established that they are working together. They work in groups of 10-15 people, with one local amir (commander) and at times with no direct link to the main TTP leaders like Hakimullah Mehsud, so it makes it very difficult to trace their wider links. And these groups not only have Pashtun militants, but also those from Punjab and Balochistan, and even locals."

An October 18, 2009, report claimed that some 60 of the TTP’s second-rung leaders – who fled Swat during the Army’s Operation Rah-e-Rast (Path to Truth) – used Karachi as a transit route to head out to the Middle East. Sources indicate that sleeper cells of the TTP in Karachi facilitated the flight of these leaders. Some of those who travelled to the Middle East were close to Taliban leaders Muslim Khan and Maulana Fazlullah, and were part of the TTP’s decision-making structure. According to these sources, the Karachi unit of TTP hosts Islamist militants from other provinces, and provides logistics support, and also recruits new members. However, the Karachi TTP has no operational wing, and does not have permission to carry out attacks in the city.

Earlier, in an alarming disclosure, a March 1, 2009, report prepared by the Karachi Criminal Investigation Department Special Branch indicated that the Taliban network could strike the financial and shipping hub of Karachi and "could take the city hostage at any point". A December 23, 2009, report, quoting a Senior Police Official, stated that several militants of the LeJ, who were earlier hiding and fighting in the tribal areas of the NWFP, had reached Karachi to carry out terrorist activities.

Reports also indicated that Afghan Taliban were relocating from Quetta (Balochisatn) to Karachi, making it more difficult to apprehend them. According to a statement by Lt. Gen. John Paxton, director for operations at the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, on February 23, 2010, "Elements of the Afghan Taliban high command are beginning to relocate from Quetta to Karachi... And obviously this makes it more difficult to locate and apprehend the senior Taliban leadership, because Karachi is a major metropolitan city with over 3 million Pashtuns."

Meanwhile, Political Commentator Rafia Zakaria in an article published in Dawn on February 10, 2010, observed:

As Pakistan’s only mega city Karachi’s demographics, history of communal conflict and dynamics of urban governance all present a lethal mix. In addition, its status as a global city, one with widespread (and largely unregulated) communication systems, present unique opportunities to terrorist groups wishing to use the city as a hub for monitoring and proliferating transnational networks. More al Qaeda planners and leaders are believed to have been apprehended in Karachi than in any other single city, pointing to the fact that Karachi is not simply a target for terrorist attacks but a place which provides a cover to groups planning them. The arrests of Shawki Awad Balzuhair, Aziz Ahmed Al Maythali, Hassan Bin Attash, Rahimullah and several others, all took place in the city… In the political and structural opportunities it presents for planning and execution, Karachi could well be Al Qaeda’s dream city. Strategically, it holds an advantage over the tribal areas in that it is unlikely to be the target of US drone attacks. Karachi represents an important target for attacks because capitalising on political fissures in the city yields enormous advantages in thwarting the NATO mission in Afghanistan. The city is the entry point for NATO supplies to Afghanistan and its destabilisation would translate into a massive blow to NATO efforts in the region.

Karachi now provides an entire ‘infrastructure’ for terrorist organisations to flourish. The TTP, Taliban and al Qaeda, facing some pressure in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, continue to pour into the port city, further damaging an already dwindling Pakistani economy. The city is already a safe haven for Islamist terrorists, and is evolving as a significant theatre of violence. Unless extremist networks are uprooted now, the ‘descent into anarchy’ that has been noted across Pakistan’s other provinces may well come to afflict the country’s commercial capital.

Ajit Kumar Singh is a Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management and Tushar Ranjan Moahnty is a Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Source: South Asia Intelligence Review -[Sair]

URL:http://www.newageislam.com/NewAgeIslamWarWithinIslam_1.aspx?ArticleID=3067

Debate
29 Jun 2010, NewAgeIslam.Com
Bizarre Fantasy? Does the Bible predict destruction of Saudi Arabia?

What is Saudi Arabia's primary export? Most will assume it be oil. Wrong. The answer is ideology; radical Islamic ideology. According to one authority, the Saudi Arabian government spends more every three days on Islamic missions than the Southern Baptist Convention (the world's largest protestant missions organization) spends every year. Saudi Arabia is the womb that gave birth to Islam 1,400 years ago, and today, Saudi Arabia continues to give birth to radical Islam throughout the nations. ...

And while nearly everyone has acknowledged the convincing nature of this perspective, nearly everyone asks, "But why would the radical nations that make up the Islamic beast empire turn on Saudi Arabia to destroy her?" For anyone who understands the geopolitical climate of the Middle East, the answer is actually quite simple. While the Saudis pour open their treasuries to fund the radical jihadis globally, as well as to bribe and influence various world leaders and major universities, this cannot compare to the amount of money they spend to fund their own defense. The Saudis greatest enemy has always been the radical monster they created. Throughout the Middle East, the Saudi royals are viewed as a filthy rich, corrupt and compromised monarchy and an affront to true Islam. -- Joel Richardson

Bizarre Fantasy? Does the Bible predict destruction of Saudi Arabia?

By Joel Richardson

Middle-Eastern media outlets are reporting that Israel may be about to launch a major attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Last week, Israel Today reported that Saudi Arabia had given Israel permission to use its airspace for an attack, and now the Iranian Fars News Agency has reported that a squad of Israeli jets has even landed at a military airstrip in Saudi Arabia. Could this development have any significance with regard to biblical prophecy? I believe it could.

One of the greatest prophetic mysteries of the Bible is the identity of a women referred to as "the Great Prostitute" found in Revelation 17 and 18. The woman is also referred to as "Mystery Babylon." She is initially portrayed as riding a seven-headed beast, but later this very same beast turns on her, "devours her and burns her with fire."

Now to those who are not well-versed in the book of Revelation, this of course will all sound bizarre. But to those who have studied this prophetic/apocalyptic capstone of the Bible, the symbolic imagery is all quite familiar.

As mysterious as the book of Revelation is, the story that it conveys is actually fairly simple. The larger context of the story begins a few chapters earlier describing a very different woman. This woman is about to give birth to a "man-child," but positioned before the woman is a seven-headed dragon that seeks to devour the child. Bible scholars are in near universal agreement that this woman represents the nation of Israel, which corporately gave birth to Jesus, the Messiah. The dragon of course, is Satan, the adversary of God and his people. Satan's desire down through the ages has been to thwart the redemptive plan of God in the earth by destroying Israel, in order to ultimately destroy the Messiah.

As the story unfolds, we are introduced to the seven-headed beast, a being which represents the seven world empires of history that have sought to destroy Israel. In that the beast is seen to be a reflection of Satan the dragon; it is also believed that these gentile empires have been Satan's primary vehicles or strongholds in the earth. The first world empire that made efforts to destroy the Hebrew people, of course, was Egypt. Egypt was followed by Assyria, Babylon, Medo-Persia, Greece and Rome. This brings the number of empires to six. There is one more. Each one of these empires share the commonalities of having possessed the same destructive anti-Semitic spirit. Each sought, but failed, to exterminate the Jewish people.

But thus far, only six empires have been identified. The seventh and final head to follow the Roman Empire was the Islamic Empire that consisted of the various Islamic dynasties culminating in the Islamic Ottoman Empire. In my book "Islamic Antichrist," as well as in "God's War on Terror," co-authored with Walid Shoebat, the identity of Islam as the seventh empire is made abundantly clear.

With this background, we can now turn our attention back to the other woman, the Great Prostitute. Who is this women riding the beast, and why does the beast turn on her?

Identifying "Mystery Babylon" is actually far simpler than it might seem. The prototype of the ultimate last days Babylon, of course, was simply Babylon, the spiritual and economic capital of the Empire of Babylonia. Later in the first century, however, the Apostle Peter, writing from Rome, the capital of the Roman Empire, referred to Rome as "Babylon" (1 Peter 5:13). In this, we see that the early church understood "Babylon" to be a concept that migrated. Babylon is a symbolic codeword that refers to the capital of the reigning beast empire. In the first century, the persecuting beast empire was the Roman Empire. But today, the anti-Semitic beast empire of the earth is the Islamic Empire.

So, what is the spiritual and financial capital of the Islamic world?

Undoubtedly, Mecca, situated in the heart of Saudi Arabia, is the spiritual capital of the Islamic world. Every day, 1.6 billion people bow toward this city praying to Allah, their god.

Also beyond the shadow of a doubt, the financial capital of the Islamic world is Saudi Arabia. Although this is perhaps one of the greatest taboos that one can state openly, it is Saudi Arabia, above any other nation or entity that has given birth to the global jihad. The Saudis finance the madrassas, mosques and Islamic centers throughout the earth. They raise up the hate preachers and send them to fill the pulpits and teach at the schools. And they fill the shelves with Saudi-approved radical Islamic pro-jihad literature.

What is Saudi Arabia's primary export?

Most will assume it be oil. Wrong. The answer is ideology; radical Islamic ideology. According to one authority, the Saudi Arabian government spends more every three days on Islamic missions than the Southern Baptist Convention (the world's largest protestant missions organization) spends every year. Saudi Arabia is the womb that gave birth to Islam 1,400 years ago, and today, Saudi Arabia continues to give birth to radical Islam throughout the nations.

As the spiritual and economic capital of the reigning anti-Semitic beast empire of our day, Saudi Arabia/Mecca may be identified as the Great Prostitute of Revelation 17 and 18. Most who hear this notion for the first time are surprised as it is a fairly novel concept. For a much more detailed expansion of this idea, I would refer you to my latest DVD, "Understanding the Times."

As I have traveled the nation, after teaching on this subject, I've yet to meet anyone who has rejected the idea outright. Saudi Arabia fulfills every last Scriptural description of the Prostitute to a T. And while nearly everyone has acknowledged the convincing nature of this perspective, nearly everyone asks, "But why would the radical nations that make up the Islamic beast empire turn on Saudi Arabia to destroy her?"

For anyone who understands the geopolitical climate of the Middle East, the answer is actually quite simple. While the Saudis pour open their treasuries to fund the radical jihadis globally, as well as to bribe and influence various world leaders and major universities, this cannot compare to the amount of money they spend to fund their own defense. The Saudis greatest enemy has always been the radical monster they created. Throughout the Middle East, the Saudi royals are viewed as a filthy rich, corrupt and compromised monarchy and an affront to true Islam.

And now, reports are coming in that claim the Saudis are collaborating with the Jewish nation, the enemy of all enemies, to launch an attack on Iran. I would undoubtedly say that has deep relevance with regard to biblical prophecy.

Joel Richardson is the author of "Islamic Antichrist," published by WND books and is the co-author with Walid Shoebat of "God's War on Terror." His blog is www.Joelstrumpet.com.

© 2010 Joel Richardson

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=171389

URL: http://www.newageislam.com/NewAgeIslamDebate_1.aspx?ArticleID=3069

Islam, Women and Feminism
29 Jun 2010, NewAgeIslam.Com
Ayesha was a principal source of Hadith

The Prophet Mohammed married Ayesha Siddiqa after the death of his first wife Khadija. One account claims that she was betrothed at the age of six and married when she was nine, but later studies have established beyond doubt that she was more than 19 years old at the time of marriage. She lived with her husband in Medina till he breathed his last; a period of ten crucial and formative years in the history of the new religion.

All biographical accounts of Ayesha show that her personality was a rich combination of beauty and brains. She possessed an inquisitive mind and showed great aptitude for learning not only the religion and its laws but was equally interested in literature, poetry, history and medicine. Islamic law recognise Quran and Sunna, including Hadith (Prophetic actions and saying), as the main sources of religious law and morality and Ayesha is reputed to have been proficient in both. -- Arif M. Khan

Ayesha was a principal source of Hadith

By Arif M Khan

In Hadith literature, more than 2,210 narrations are attributed to Ayesha, thus placing her in the top bracket with three others who have given credible reports of the holy Prophet’s actions and sayings. What is interesting is that in many cases, she did not hesitate to question the authenticity of the version given by some of her prominent contemporaries, and proffered both her own version and context in which the Prophet had made an observation, to set the record straight.

The Prophet Mohammed married Ayesha Siddiqa after the death of his first wife Khadija. One account claims that she was betrothed at the age of six and married when she was nine, but later studies have established beyond doubt that she was more than 19 years old at the time of marriage. She lived with her husband in Medina till he breathed his last; a period of ten crucial and formative years in the history of the new religion.

All biographical accounts of Ayesha show that her personality was a rich combination of beauty and brains. She possessed an inquisitive mind and showed great aptitude for learning not only the religion and its laws but was equally interested in literature, poetry, history and medicine. Islamic law recognise Quran and Sunna, including Hadith (Prophetic actions and saying), as the main sources of religious law and morality and Ayesha is reputed to have been proficient in both.

In Hadith literatures, more than 2,210 narrations are attributed to her, thus placing her in the top bracket with three others who have given credible reports of the holy Prophet’s actions and sayings.

What is interesting is that in many cases, she did not hesitate to question the authenticity of the version given by some of her prominent contemporaries, and proffered both her own version and the context in which the Prophet had made an observation, to set the record straight. In such cases, she used to preface her version with the sentence, “I do not say that these persons are lying, but often ears make a mistake in hearing.”

These soothing words ensured that those whose version was questioned felt no offence. Some people told Ayesha that Abu Huraira (the most prolific reporter of Hadith) relates that the Prophet had said “inauspiciousness consists in three: in women, horses and houses”.

Ayesha said that this was not correct and Abu Huraira had heard only a part of the statement.

The statement of the Prophet was: “The Jews say that inauspiciousness consists in three things, in women, in horses and in houses.”

Likewise when she heard that Abu Huraira had said that if a donkey, dog or woman crosses in front of the man saying prayers, the prayers are annulled Ayesha protested strongly saying that she was often in the room, and near him when the Prophet was praying. Once Abu Huraira came and sat beside the apartment of Ayesha and began to narrate prophetic traditions which annoyed Ayesha, who was offering her prayers. Abu Dawood (1638) records how she scolded him publicly for his quick and vague narrations. Then she recalled the manner of speech of the Prophet and said that he was so measured that if someone wanted to count the number of his words, he could do so.

Bukhari (5.316) has reported that Ibn Umar and Ibn Abbas, on the authority of Caliph Umar, related a prophetic saying that “the dead person in punished on account of the crying and lamentation of his family”. When this was reported to Ayesha, she denied it and said that what the Prophet had said was “the dead person is punished for his crimes and sins while his family cries over him”. Aisha further added, “The Quran is sufficient for you to clear this point, as Allah says: ‘Nor can a bearer of burdens bear another’s buredn’ (35.18)”.

Ayesha possessed not only great Qualities of mind but used her charm and wit to win the love of her husband. Once she asked him: How strong is your love for me? He replied that it was like a rope’s knot, implying it was strong and secure. Later she would often tease him: How is the knot? And he would affirm “ala halihi” meaning “as ever”.

Source: The Sunday Guardian

URL: http://www.newageislam.com/NewAgeIslamIslamWomenAndFeminism_1.aspx?ArticleID=3066

Islam and Politics
29 Jun 2010, NewAgeIslam.Com
Iran’s Green Movement: Fantasy as policy

I have been deeply supportive of Iran’s Green Movement. I wrote glowingly about it, highlighted it on television, and showcased its advocates. But I do not think there is much evidence that it was likely to overthrow the Iranian regime. To believe that, one has to believe that the government in Tehran is deeply unpopular with a majority of Iranians, holds onto power through military force alone, and is thus vulnerable to a movement that could mobilise the vast majority in Iran who despise it. None of this is entirely true.

The Iranian regime has many, many opponents. But it also has millions of supporters. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have actually lost the presidential election of 2009. But it was a close contest in which he got millions of votes. What little polling has been done in Iran, coupled with the observations of people who have been there, all suggest that the regime has considerable public support in rural areas, among the devout, and in poorer communities. Newsweek’s Maziar Bahari, who was jailed by the government for four months on trumped-up charges, believes that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remains the single most popular political figure in Iran. -- Fareed Zakaria

Iran’s Green Movement: Fantasy as policy

By Fareed Zakaria

As Barack Obama goes through one of his most difficult periods as president, you might wonder what it would have been like if the other guy had won. We will never know, of course, but in one area, John McCain provides us with some clues. He would have tried to overthrow the government of Iran. In a speech on June 10, later published as a cover essay in The New Republic, McCain urged that we “unleash America’s full moral power” to topple the Tehran regime. The speech highlights one of the crucial failings of McCain’s world view, one in which rhetoric replaces analysis, and fantasy substitutes for foreign policy.

By now, it’s become something of a mantra among neo-conservatives that we missed a chance to transform Iran a year ago. Reuel Marc Gerecht, writing in The New York Times, compares Iran’s Green Movement to “what transpired behind the Iron Curtain in the 1980s” and accuses Obama of being passive in the face of this historical moment. Bret Stephens, a columnist for The Wall Street Journal, imagines that a more forceful Western response could have set off a revolution.

I have been deeply supportive of Iran’s Green Movement. I wrote glowingly about it, highlighted it on television, and showcased its advocates. But I do not think there is much evidence that it was likely to overthrow the Iranian regime. To believe that, one has to believe that the government in Tehran is deeply unpopular with a majority of Iranians, holds onto power through military force alone, and is thus vulnerable to a movement that could mobilise the vast majority in Iran who despise it. None of this is entirely true.

The Iranian regime has many, many opponents. But it also has millions of supporters. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have actually lost the presidential election of 2009. But it was a close contest in which he got millions of votes. What little polling has been done in Iran, coupled with the observations of people who have been there, all suggest that the regime has considerable public support in rural areas, among the devout, and in poorer communities. Newsweek’s Maziar Bahari, who was jailed by the government for four months on trumped-up charges, believes that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remains the single most popular political figure in Iran.

McCain reveals a startling ignorance about the Iranian regime when he argues, in his speech, that it “spends its people’s precious resources not on roads, or schools, or hospitals, or jobs that benefit all Iranians — but on funding violent groups of foreign extremists who murder the innocent”. While Tehran does fund militant groups, one of the keys to Ahmadinejad’s popularity has been his large-scale spending on social programmes for the poor. The regime lays out far more money on those domestic programmes than on anything abroad.

The comparison of Iran’s Green Revolution to the velvet revolutions of Eastern Europe is mistaken. In 1989 dissidents had three forces on their side: nationalism (because communism had been imposed by force by a foreign power), religion (because communism repressed the church), and democracy. The Green Movement has only one: democracy. The regime has always used the religiosity of the people to its advantage. But it’s also become skilled at manipulating nationalism.

In May, the Milton Friedman Prize for Advancing Liberty was awarded to Akbar Ganji, one of the bravest advocates of nonviolent agitation and secular democracy for Iran. Ganji was jailed for six years in Evin Prison, mostly in solitary confinement, for his writings against the government. In his acceptance speech, Ganji explained that US foreign policy does have an impact on Iran’s freedom movement but not quite in the sense that neo-conservatives mean.

“Even entertaining the possibility of a military strike, especially when predicated on the nuclear issue,” Ganji said, “is beneficial to the fundamentalists who rule Iran. As such, the idea itself is detrimental to the democratic movement in my country”. The regime bends international issues to its favour, and has become vocal about what Ganji calls the “gushing wound of Palestine… [which] worsens the infection of fundamentalism.” He pointed out that Tehran continually reminds Iranians of America’s “double standards” in opposing Iran’s nuclear programme while staying silent about Israel’s arsenal of atomic weapons.

Ironically, those hoping to liberate Iranians are the very same people urging punitive sanctions and even military force against Iran. Do they think that when the bombs hit, they will spare those who wear green?

(Fareed Zakaria is the Editor of Newsweek and the author of The Post-American World The views expressed by the author are personal)

Source: Hindustan Times

URL: http://www.newageislam.com/NewAgeIslamIslamAndPolitics_1.aspx?ArticleID=3068