Egypt: The Next Volcano?
In a very telling
incident, Mubarak recently flew to Germany for gall bladder and colon surgery.
After some $85 billion in US aid, Mubarak could not even trust a local hospital
in the Arab world's leading nation to perform his operation. The US gives Egypt
$1.3 billion annually in military aid to keep the generals content, and about
$700 million in economic aid, not counting large but secret CIA stipends to key
generals, high officials, intelligence chiefs and Egypt's media. A small
business elite attached to Mubarak has grown wealthy while the rest of Egypt
remains mired in poverty, with a per capita national income around $1,600 per
annum. -- Eric Margolis
By Eric Margolis
Egypt is facing a potential
political eruption that could rock the entire Mideast and seriously undermine US
domination of the strategic region.
This
threat comes as tensions in the Mideast are already extremely high. Threats of
war involving US, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran are flying fast and furious.
President
Husni Mubarak, the US-supported strongman who has ruled Egypt with an iron hand
for almost 30 years, is 81 and in frail health. Amazingly, he has no designated
successor. No one knows who will take over Egypt when he dies.
For
Mubarak, it may be "après moi, le deluge." Dealing with elderly dictators is
always an extremely tricky business.
Mubarak,
an air force general, was put into power with US help after the assassination of
President Anwar Sadat by nationalist soldiers in 1981. Sadat had been a CIA
"asset" since 1952.
My
sharp-tongued mother interviewed Sadat in the 1950's and described him as a
"clown." Sadat was a hero in the US and Israel, but Egyptians hated him and
greeted his killing with jubilation.
Egypt,
with 82 million people, is the most populous and important Arab nation. Cairo
has long been the cultural center of the Arab world. It is also an overcrowded
madhouse with eight million people (12 million in the great Cairo area) crammed
into an early 20th century colonial city built for 500,000. Cairo's population
has tripled since I lived there as a boy in 1957.
About
28% all Arabs are Egyptians. Deduct North Africa, known as the Maghreb - and not
traditionally part of the Arab heartland - and Egypt counts for a third of all
Arabs. The Nilotic Egyptians are quite different ethnically from the Arabs of
Arabia, Syria and Iraq, but they all share a mostly common language, religion,
and sense of pan-Arab identity.
Egypt
was once the heart and soul of the Arab and Muslim world. Under Sadat's
predecessor, the widely adored nationalist, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt led the
Arab world. By contrast, Egyptians despised successor Sadat as a corrupt Western
toady, and sullenly accepted Mubarak.
After
three decades under Mubarak, Egypt has become a political and cultural
backwater, and a virtual American protectorate. Its political, intellectual, and
religious life have been hand-cuffed by the security police.
In
a very telling incident, Mubarak recently flew to Germany for gall bladder and
colon surgery. After some $85 billion in US aid, Mubarak could not even trust a
local hospital in the Arab world's leading nation to perform his
operation.
The
US gives Egypt $1.3 billion annually in military aid to keep the generals
content, and about $700 million in economic aid, not counting large but secret
CIA stipends to key generals, high officials, intelligence chiefs and Egypt's
media. A small business elite attached to Mubarak has grown wealthy while the
rest of Egypt remains mired in poverty, with a per capita national income around
$1,600 per annum.
Egypt
does not have enough arable land to feed its growing population, and must import
50% of its foodstuffs, mostly subsidized, low-cost US wheat. This food aid, on
which Egypt
depends for sustenance, is appropriated each year by the US Congress.
depends for sustenance, is appropriated each year by the US Congress.
Washington's
powerful Israel lobby, which dominates Congress, could choke off US food aid to
Egypt. Sadat and Mubarak gave Israel decisive influence over Egypt's policies in
exchange for food aid and billions of dollars, a fact that enrages Egypt's
Islamists and nationalists.
Mubarak's
Egypt is the cornerstone of America's Mideast Raj (dominion). Egypt's
469,000-man armed forces, 397,000 paramilitary police, and ferocious secret
police keep the regime in power and crush all dissent.
Though
large, Egypt's military is starved by Washington of modern weapons, ammo, and
spare parts so it cannot war against Israel. Its sole function is keeping the
US-backed regime in power.
Mubarak
has long been a key ally of Israel in battling Islamist and nationalist groups.
Egypt and Israel collaborate on penning up Hamas-led Palestinians in Gaza. Hamas
is a militant offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, and thus greatly feared by
Cairo for its calls to root out corruption, share national wealth, impose
Islamic justice, and cease automatic obedience to US policies.
Egypt
is now building a new steel wall on the Gaza border with US assistance.
Mubarak's Wall, which will go down 40 feet, is designed to block tunnels through
which Gaza Palestinians rely for supplies. Egypt and Israel claim Mubarak's wall
is to prevent arms from being smuggled into Gaza. The East German regime also
claimed its notorious wall was for security reasons.
While
Washington fulminates against Iran, Burma, and China over human rights, it says
nothing about client Egypt, where all elections are rigged, regime opponents
brutally tortured, and political opposition liquidated.
Washington
could quickly impose real democracy to Egypt, where it pulls all the strings, if
it wanted. But it does not. In 1991-92, the Arab world's first truly free
election was held in military-run Algeria. The Islamist opposition won a
landslide. Algeria's generals, urged on by France and the US, annulled the vote
and arrested opposition leaders. The Arab world's second free vote was held in
Palestine, and resulted in a landslide for Hamas. The US, Israel and Egypt
immediately moved to annul the election and pen up Hamas in the open-air prison
of Gaza.
Ayman
Nur, the last man who dared run in an election against the eternal Mubarak -
"pharaoh" to Islamist opponents - was arrested and tortured. Washington only
issued a few mild tut-tuts.
Now,
as Mubarak's health fails, the US and Israel are increasingly alarmed his death
could produce a political eruption in long-repressed
Egypt.
Mubarak
has been trying to groom his son, Gamal, to succeed him. But Egyptians are
deeply opposed. The powerful 72-year old intelligence chief, Gen. Omar Suleiman,
an ally of the US and Israel, is another possible strongman. CIA will also be
grooming other army or air force generals for the job.
Egypt's
secular political opposition barely exists. The regime's real opponent remains
the relatively moderate, popular, Islamic Brotherhood. It would win a free
election hands down. But the Brotherhood's leadership is old and tired. Younger,
more dynamic leaders have all been jailed or bought off. Half of Egyptians are
under 20.
Mohammed
el- Baradai, the intelligent, highly respected Egyptian former UN nuclear chief,
is calling for real democracy in his homeland. He presents the most attractive
candidate to lead post-Mubarak Egypt. But the regime has already begun moving
against him.
Washington
would do well to back the popular el-Baradei, even if he refuses to toe the
line. Better having independent-minded moderate allies with a popular mandate
than more despots or military oligarchs. Have we learned nothing from Iran?
Washington
hopes it can ease another compliant general into power and keep the security
forces loyal before thirty years of pent-up fury at Mubarak's dictatorship,
Egypt's political emasculation, thirst for change, and dire poverty produce a
volcanic eruption on the Nile.
If
Egypt erupts, the US-backed regimes of Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia
could be next.
Source:
huffingtonpost.com
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