By Cyril Almeida
Karachi
Occasionally, very occasionally, the military mind here hits upon a
good idea. The offer to supply nuclear fuel cycle services under International
Atomic Energy Agency safeguards may be one of those ideas. Let’s begin with the
science bit in this maze of scientific jargon and high-stakes international
politics.
What
Pakistan has offered is analogous to an oil-refining facility. If you have a
generator and barrels of crude oil, you can’t very well pour the oil into the
generator and flip the switch; you need petrol or diesel. So for countries
looking to, say, set up a nuclear power plant — all the rage nowadays — Pakistan
is offering to prepare the nuclear fuel that will power the plant which will
produce electricity. That’s all we really need to know.
Why is
this a good idea?
Pakistan
is the bad boy of the nuclear world. Well, maybe not as bad as North Korea or
Iran, but bad enough. Neither are we truly accepted as one of the members of the
nuclear club nor are we trusted with the technology.
The
reasons for this are varied. First and foremost, we screwed up: see A.Q. Khan.
(Sure, there may be explanations and mitigating circumstances but we made our
own bed.) Then we have loads of jihadis running around blowing up stuff (and
themselves). We have an Army which jealously guards its nukes but forgot to
inoculate itself against its own progeny, the aforementioned
jihadis.
We
aren’t very stable politically. We, and let’s be honest, have lots of Muslims
who are right-leaning and our leaders occasionally succumb to kooky ideas
involving Pakistan punching above its weight. And all that comes before you
enter the exotic realm of conspiracy theories.
So
whatever Pakistan does, it just can’t cut a break on its nuclear programme. It
is a stick used to beat Pakistan with whenever it gets a bit frisky and demands
to play with the boys.
To see
how it works we need go no further than Exhibit A, a Reuters story on their
Indian website after Pakistani Prime Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani made the
surprise nuclear offer: “Pakistan, the country of the disgraced nuclear
scientist who provided Iran, Libya and North Korea with uranium enrichment
technology, is once again offering its atomic fuel services to the
world”.
Not so
subtle, is it? You have to click through to page 3 before you find this: “UN
nuclear chief Yukiya Amano told reporters that there had been some improvements
in nuclear security in Pakistan”.
Unsurprisingly, then, Pakistan has been desperate to change the
subject, as it were, from our nuclear sins to our legitimate nuclear concerns.
The Army wants the subject changed because it is obsessed with India, but there
is reason for others — Pakistanis who aren’t in the same camp as the Army — to
also hope they succeed in changing the subject.
Here’s
how changing the subject may work: the offer to provide nuclear fuel services
puts Pakistan in a category of law abiders rather than nuclear scofflaws. Well,
maybe not exactly “law abiders” but at least it creates space for us to escape
from our perennial defensive crouch. In the world of diplomacy, having something
new and original to say can nudge along a dialogue stuck on the same old
hackneyed subjects.
Of
course, the impact should not be overstated. The offer made headlines in
Pakistan but barely registered in the international media (other than,
predictably, India). What it does indicate, though, is that General Headquarters
is indulging in a bit of creative thinking, a way out of the nuclear-pariah
morass. This is new.
It’s
unclear to what extent credit goes to General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani for this, but
it is noticeable that on his watch the Army has become more forthright. We’ve
seen it on India, Afghanistan and the Afghan-India connection. And now we’re
seeing it with the nuclear programme.
Rather
than begging for recognition and legitimacy, the nuclear establishment has, in
making the nuclear fuel offer, acted like it already is a recognised and
legitimate player. It is an interesting move, though the pay-off isn’t clear at
this stage.
Hopefully someone will bite at Pakistan’s offer. And if it is a
western country, then all the better. Here’s why. Keeping Pakistan on the
defensive on all things nuclear means the Army is on the defensive and in
uber-suspicious mode. That leads to less-than-welcome
outcomes.
Take
this example. Ever since the US-Indo civil nuclear deal appeared on the horizon,
the Army here has been clamouring for one. But is a similar deal really
economically viable for Pakistan? Nuclear power plants are expensive, very
expensive. Where is Pakistan going to get all those billions of dollars from,
assuming a deal is in fact possible?
And the
cost-of-electricity calculations overlook aspects unique to nuclear power:
safety and security. By the time the cost of proper safety measures and adequate
security are factored in, the electricity generated could be more expensive than
the already pricey thermal option we are trying to shift away
from.
So why
are we arguing for a similar deal? Partially because it will bestow our nuclear
programme with a legitimacy it currently lacks. Political legitimacy at a steep
economic cost is something the Indian economy can absorb, but can the same be
said about Pakistan’s?
Yet none
of these issues can be debated meaningfully as long as the Army knows how the
rest of the world regards its nuclear programme: as an unfortunate aberration
that must either be tolerated for strategic reasons or defanged sooner than
later.
Since
the nuclear programme is in fact going to remain foundational to national
security for the foreseeable future, even those here who don’t always agree with
the Army should be rooting for the latest gambit to pay off. A nuclear power at
ease about the legitimacy of its programme in the eyes of the world is less
likely to be reductionist and more amenable to sophisticated
options.
Put
another way, the Army may be more reasonable if the world learns to treat its
nuclear programme more reasonably.
Source: Deccan Chronicle
12:34 AM
Sultan Shahin
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