A Fragile Ceasefire in Gaza

Aftab Alam, New Age Islam 12 February 2005 A ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas has finally been executed following 15 months of devastating war in Gaza. This is the second ceasefire in 15 months. Versions of the deal have been on the table at least since when it was first announced by US President Joe Biden in May 2024 but could not be materialised due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stubbornness till he was threatened and pressured by then-President-elect Donald Trump to accept a cease-fire by the inauguration of his presidency on January 20. The deal was announced on January 15, after protracted and painstaking negotiations orchestrated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, and went into effect on January 19 with Hamas freeing three Israeli hostages and Israel releasing 90 Palestinian prisoners. Hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians have also started returning to their homes in northern Gaza after Israel reopened military checkpoints that had divided the strip for more than a year. Under the first phase of the deal, which will last 42 days, 33 Israeli captives are set to be freed by Hamas at regular intervals in exchange for an estimated 1,700 to 2,000 Palestinian detainees. Israeli forces will be partially withdrawn from populated areas and facilitate the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. The rest of the remaining hostages, numbering 65, would be sent back, and a corresponding ratio of Palestinian prisoners would be released in the second phase, along with the complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces from Gaza. The third and final phase, which could be a long way off, will involve the reconstruction of Gaza, following a permanent end to the war. The success of the ceasefire will considerably depend on the political survival of Netanyahu, who has been facing mounting pressure from his far-right coalition partners as they are deadly against any deal with Hamas. They fear that yielding to Hamas’s demands could endanger Israeli security once again, potentially leading to a “second October 7.”. The Jewish Power Party, led by former National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, has already left his coalition government in protest against the ceasefire, and hard-line Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, of the National Religious Party, has threatened to bring down the government if the military operation against Hamas is not resumed after the first phase. They are for a permanent occupation of Gaza and to re-establish Jewish settlements there. It was Netanyahu’s fear of the collapse of his government that deterred him from accepting the deal when it was first fleshed out in May last year. The real test of this deal will be when it enters the second phase and determines who will govern Gaza and a decision is taken on the full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel and the US are deadly against Hamas returning to power in the territory it has ruled since 2007. Far-right ministers in Netanyahu's government, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have even been suggesting the return of a "Jewish civilian presence" in Gaza. They also want the Israeli military to retain operational rights in Gaza, similar to the way it does in the occupied West Bank. The US wants the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in a brief civil war in 2007, to govern the West Bank and Gaza with the support of Arab countries. The PA may be enjoying international recognition and backing, but it has little or no influence in Gaza. The PA is viewed as complicit in the occupation of its people. The conspicuous silence maintained by the PA in the face of Palestinians enduring the deadliest and most destructive war and Israel’s continued land grabs has made it even more irrelevant. It would also be a serious mistake to assume that Hamas is finished. Hamas may have been severely weakened and its top leadership eliminated, but it is still a force to be reckoned with in Gaza. Hamas has already started reasserting its control in Gaza, which was on full display at the time of the hostage exchange. The gun-toting, balaclava-clad Hamas fighters can be seen at the handovers every time. Hamas civil policemen have already started manning Gaza’s ruined streets and assisting tens of thousands of displaced Gazans to return. Hamas has also resumed some government services. Any future plan for Gaza’s governance excluding Hamas will not be without challenges. US President Donald Trump’s repugnant statement describing Gaza as a “demolition site” and should be “cleaned out” is damaging and casts a shadow over the ceasefire deal. He said that Palestinians could live somewhere else safer and “more comfortable.” Trump’s proposal not only emboldens Israel’s extreme right, who are already against any peace deal, but would also never let violent extremism among Palestinians die down. His statement would prove to be the biggest hurdle in the way of peace and reconciliation. Though his idea has been rejected by everyone outside Israel, including Egypt, Jordan, the UN, and Palestinian leaders, it has sent shockwaves across the region. Given their history of forced displacements, Palestinians genuinely fear that they would ever return and live there peacefully. The reconstruction of the devastated Gaza planned in the third phase of the deal will be monumental and the most formidable task. The Norwegian Refugee Council reports that nine out of ten homes in Gaza have been damaged or completely destroyed, alongside critical infrastructure like hospitals, schools, and water facilities. The war has also damaged 80% to 96% of Gaza's agricultural infrastructure. According to an estimate by the UNDP, it will cost around US$50 billion and might take as long as 80 years to fully rebuild and restore Gaza. UNRWA estimates that clearing over 50 million tonnes of debris caused by Israel's relentless bombardment might alone take about 15 years and cost up to $1.2 billion. The mobilisation of funding to rebuild Gaza will be the most challenging. Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, have insisted that they would only support the scheme if there is a pathway to Palestinian statehood. The Israeli blockade, which restricts the entry of essential construction materials, is also likely to severely hinder the reconstruction project. There is also no certainty that the ceasefire will survive the first phase. Many fear that Israel will not honour the remaining terms of the deal once the hostages are released. Israeli PM Netanyahu has reportedly promised his far-right coalition partners that Israel would restart the war and gradually assert full control over Gaza. In his first public speech since the deal was reached, Netanyahu described the ceasefire as "temporary" and insisted that Israel retains the right to resume the war should negotiations for a second phase of the ceasefire deal prove futile. He said, “We will do that in new ways, and we will do it with great force.” Notwithstanding these challenges and roadblocks, the ceasefire is in itself welcome news. Howsoever fragile the deal may be, it still provides, at least temporarily, much-needed relief for Gaza’s besieged people and ends the nightmares of the Israeli hostages. However, its success will depend on addressing significant challenges the deal faces. Recognising the Palestinians’ aspirations of an independent state, as envisaged under the “two-state solution” framework of the Oslo Accords of 1993, alone can guarantee long-term peace and can address the security needs of Israel permanently. There is also an urgent need to build a consensus around Gaza’s new governance model acceptable to all Palestinian factions, regional powers, and Washington. Hamas should realise that its continued rule is not in the best interests of Gaza’s reconstruction, and Israel must stop fixating on eliminating Hamas. The ceasefire is unlikely to succeed without Trump’s direct involvement and support. ... The writer is a professor at Aligarh Muslim University and heads its Strategic and Security Studies Programme. 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